Longchamp (FR)
Well-fancied Los Angeles shortens in Arc market – but Sunday weather forecast remains uncertain
Los Angeles continues to close in on the head of what remains a wide-open market for the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, while the weather outlook for Sunday at Longchamp remains extremely tough to read.
A general 5-1 chance at the end of Thursday following the confirmation that Ryan Moore would be aboard Los Angeles, a couple of firms trimmed him again again on Friday, and in most books there is only half a point between the winner of the Irish Derby and the Great Voltigeur Stakes and the two leading French-trained three-year-olds in Look De Vega and Sosie.
Shin Emperor is yet to shorten significantly this week and is now available to back at 15-2, and more generally at 6-1. He will bid to give Japan a long-awaited first success in the Arc, with the layers taking few chances following a third-placed effort on his European debut in the Irish Champion Stakes three weeks ago.
Trainer Yoshito Yahagi and Shin Emperor’s rider Ryusei Sakai spoke to the international press at a France Galop media call on Friday morning, and the 27-year-old rider in particular seems not to be fazed by the prospect of trying to guide Shin Emperor to Arc glory in a field of 16 on Sunday.
Asked by one Japanese journalist how he has prepared for a first ride in Europe’s richest race, Sakai’s reply elicited a chuckle for Yagagi.
Sakai said: “I’ve watched a lot of replays of past races and I know I’ll be up against a lot of Group 1 jockeys on Sunday. But I too am a Group 1 jockey and I expect a good performance from Shin Emperor.
“He was up against tough opposition in Ireland and it will be the same in the Arc. It was a hard race but he was in good condition that day and he has improved since.”
Sakai added: “Every jockey dreams of winning the Arc and I’m very humbled to be riding this horse on Sunday.”
The three-year-old full brother to 2020 Arc hero Sottsass is drawn in stall 11 and when asked of that was a concern, Sakai pointed out with a smile that the number was “two ones”, before outlining that he will wait on the weather before deciding on a game plan.
The ground had tightened a fraction to 3.7 or ‘souple’ on the French penetrometer scale on Friday morning following a dry 24 hours, while the GoingStick reading is mostly good to soft, with a section of the descent around the bend now good.
The forecast for Sunday continues to oscillate around whether or not there will be any rain before the Arc goes off at 3.20, and if so, how much.
Clerk of the course Charles de Cordon said on Friday afternoon: “The forecasts have changed a lot during the week but at the moment I don’t think it will amount to much on Sunday, with one of the forecasts that has proved most reliable speaking of around a 45 per cent chance of maybe one millimetre of rain, which isn’t enough to change the ground.
“We’ll be racing on 3.6 on Saturday and, if we get one millimetre, it will be the same on Sunday, while if we miss the rain altogether we could get towards ‘bon-souple’.”
‘Bon souple’ on the penetrometer is essentially good ground in British and Irish terms, while those forecasts that currently speak of rain make the period between 11am and 2pm French time on Sunday the greatest risk, timing that only adds to the uncertainty.
One interesting detail is that the straight course, which hosts the Prix de l’Abbaye, is quicker than the Grande Piste, with a GoingStick measurement of 7.5 as opposed to the readings between 7.1 and 7.3 on the round track.
2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe betting
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.20 Longchamp, Sunday)
Betting: 7-2 Sosie, 9-2 Look De Vega, Los Angeles, 15-2 Shin Emperor, 17-2 Al Riffa, 10 Bluestocking, Delius, 14 Mqse De Sevigne, 20 Aventure, 25 Continuous, 28 Fantastic Moon, 33 Sunway, 50 Sevenna’s Knight, Zarakem, 66 Haya Zark, Survie
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fonte : RacingPost
