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Faulty Favourites at the Cheltenham Festival
With the festival only six days away, our team of tipsters have each provided the favourite they are most willing to take on at Cheltenham next week.
The likes of Envoi Allen (4-9F), Chacun Pour Soi (8-13F), Kilcruit (10-11F), Concertista (10-11F) and Elimay (6-5F) were all beaten as short-priced favourites last year, four of whom are trained by the master Willie Mullins. Three of our experts all think a potential Closutton superstar is worth taking on this year…
Paul Kealy Brandy Love, Mares Novice Hurdle
I think Brandy Love is a bit of a nutcase, and while going left-handed will undoubtedly help, there’s every chance she will hang her chance away after the last.
Of the Mullins contenders, I much prefer the chances of both Dinoblue and Grangee.
David Jennings Bravemansgame, Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
It still baffles me that Bravemansgame didn’t finish second in last year’s Ballymore and the hill concerns me for him in the Brown Advisory.
His jumping is a thing of beauty and maybe it will get him over the line here too, but I’m not convinced there was as much under the bonnet as Harry Cobden was letting on at Haydock in November and at Newbury last time.
I can definitely see him winning the King George this year, but I’m not sure Cheltenham is his track.
Keith Melrose Shishkin, Champion Chase
This is nothing personal against Shishkin. He is a champion, but that does not give him a divine right to win championship races and he will face far greater competition than any other Cheltenham Festival shortie.
When else could you back a couple of 180 horses at 4-1? They’re 6-4 coupled! There’s also a mid-170s horse at double figures, and the horse deemed the second coming this time last year (Envoi Allen) at 20s. More to the point, why would you back Shishkin at 4-6 when all of the above is available?
I love Shishkin, but the only horse I’d back at that sort of price against Energumene, Chacun Pour Soi and Nube Negra is Sprinter Sacre. Are we really comfortable putting him in that category already?
Richard Birch Sir Gerhard, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
No negatives against Sir Gerhard, but I don’t understand why he has displaced Constitution Hill, who looks an absolute monster, as favourite in some lists.
Factor in the star potential of Kilcruit, who I’m convinced we have yet to see the best of, and he’s a market leader to oppose.
Tom Segal Facile Vega, Champion Bumper
The superlatives were flowing after Facile Vega won the bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival and there was no doubt he looked really talented. However, I can’t help but think everyone has been caught up in the hype given his pedigree and he’s way too short a price now.
To start with, the horse he beat at Leopardstown has already been beaten since and also the time on the day was not exceptional. Throw in the fact that Kllcruit and Appreciate It both won the same bumper in devastating style before getting beaten at Cheltenham and Facile Vega looks worth taking on, especially as American Mike and his stablemate Redemption Day have both looked potentially top class too.
Graeme Rodway Facile Vega, Champion Bumper
He was wildly impressive in a bumper at the Dublin Racing Festival but I don’t think he beat much. The second, Sander Clegane, was beaten by Music Drive next time and Music Drive’s victory there gave the form of Redemption Day, who beat Music Drive on his debut, a boost.
Redemption Day looked seriously good in that Leopardstown event and rates a major danger to Facile Vega next week, while we haven’t even mentioned Gordon Elliott’s American Mike.
Connections are very bullish about American Mike and rate him as a potential superstar so, provided Redemption Day and American Mike line up, Facile Vega has to be opposed.
Robbie Wilders Facile Vega, Champion Bumper
I don’t think Facile Vega would be odds-on for the Champion Bumper if his mother wasn’t Quevega.
Pedigrees aren’t everything and Quevega’s other offspring, Princess Vega, regressed after a promising start to her career and is only rated 115 over hurdles.
Regardless of bloodlines, Facile Vega and American Mike are similarly matched on what they’ve achieved and the price differential isn’t right.
Facile Vega sets the standard of Willie Mullins’ bumper team so far, but it would not surprise if one or more of his unbeaten stablemates; Redemption Day, Mercurey, James’s Gate and Madmansgame progressed past him.
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