Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Pricewise

Tom Segal’s Ante-Post Pricewise column is back for the 2022 Cheltenham Festival. The only place to find these tips is in the Racing Post newspaper or by subscribing to Members’ Club.

Tom has been in terrific form with his Ante-Post Pricewise column in recent years, with a 67 per cent profit on investment last year, 83 per cent in 2020 and a whopping 278 per cent in 2019.

His focus is now shifting towards the festival, with Ante-Post Pricewise articles published every week until a fortnight before the big event.

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ANTE-POST PRICEWISE TIP

SIR GERHARD (6-1)

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

1.30, March 15

Like many races at Cheltenham in the past decade, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has been dominated by Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson and it’s hard to see that trend being broken any time soon.

They are responsible for the four who head the ante-post market and in most other years any one of them could be expected to win a Supreme with a bit to spare.

Constitution Hill has garnered most of the superlatives after his two runaway wins at Sandown and there is little doubt he has looked special.

He could easily be the next Shishkin on the Henderson conveyor belt but winning two races against horses of much lower quality (one on bottomless ground) at Sandown is a far cry from what he is going to face at Cheltenham in March.

That is not to say he might not be even better on decent ground at Cheltenham but no one actually knows that and he’s plenty short enough on that basis.

Jonbon didn’t please everyone at Haydock in January but he was extremely strong from after the last to the line and we’ve only just scratched the surface of his potential so far.

The time wasn’t that great at Haydock but Jonbon gives the impression he is going to be much better when he gets a good pace to run at.

That seems likely if Dysart Dynamo runs in the Supreme and everyone is presuming that is going to be the case and that Willie Mullins’ other star novice, Sir Gerhard, will switch to the Ballymore.

That’s entirely possible but on pedigree and run styles I think Dysart Dynamo would be better suited to the longer race and for that reason the best value at the current stage is Sir Gerhard.

Sir Gerhard is bred to be best over 2m, his dam’s side is all about speed and his sire Jeremy is responsible for three previous 2m hurdle winners at the festival in Our Conor, Belfast Banter and Appreciate It.

Furthermore, after watching the Champion Bumper last year, it was pretty evident he won in the style of a fast horse as he went clear off the home turn and just held on from the strong finishers.

If Sir Gerhard wins at the Dublin Racing Festival, where he’s only entered over 2m, it will be a big shock if he goes anywhere but the Supreme. The last three winners of that race were all trained by Mullins and all ended up in the 2m race at Cheltenham, two of which completed the double.

Dysart Dynamo is clearly hugely talented too and given he was quite keen at Punchestown last time, he could easily be the Mullins Supreme horse.

However, he comes into the Constitution Hill category of having beaten much lesser horses on bad ground and the fact that he started his career over two and a quarter miles suggests to me that he should have no problems over the Ballymore trip. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if that was the direction he took.

Of the rest, I certainly liked the look of another Mullins-trained novice in El Fabiolo. He was impressive on his debut at Tramore, a track the trainer has used with three previous festival winners, and could be the springer in the market if he runs well at the Dublin Racing Festival.