Permian will beat Cracksman unless he’s improved significantly – Johnston
Mark Johnston believes Investec Derby favourite Cracksman will struggle to uphold the form of his short-head trial win over his 12-1 shot Permian, with the trainer convinced his subsequent dual winner has improved considerably since their April meeting.
Johnston accepts Permian got the run of the race in April’s Derby Trial at Epsom and, with ten career starts to his name including four already this year, his colt has the profile of a horse less open to improvement than Cracksman.
Yet neither of those factors has done anything to knock the confidence of Johnson, who is further encouraged by having coaxed Godolphin’s retained rider William Buick to ride for him.
“Quite understandably Cracksman’s connections expect him to come on from that Epsom race – and we pulled a bit of a fast one on him there,” he said.
“He was on the inside and we were able to hold him there as we made our challenge. Permian got first run on him there and he got out and just caught us by a nose, so they could expect to come on for the race and beat us further.
“This is the same track but a different distance. I think we are more assured to benefit from the step up in trip and I don’t think there’s any doubt in anyone’s mind Permian has come on considerably since that Epsom encounter. We may be a more exposed horse than you would expect to come on, but he has come on a lot and Cracksman is going to have to have improved significantly to beat him this time.
“It’s very encouraging to me Cracksman is favourite, I hope the punters and the bookies have it almost right because if he’s the one to beat we’ve got an extremely good chance of beating him.”
Since that April meeting at Epsom Permian has run twice, winning on both occasions. First he landed the Listed Havana Gold Newmarket Stakes, won in the past by the likes of Noble Mission and Hawkbill, by four and a half lengths before following up with a gritty three-quarter length victory in the Derby’s premier trial, the Group 2 Betfred Dante Stakes.
Talking to At The Races, Johnston added: “Everything’s been very smooth and straightforward since the Dante. He’s quite unusual for a Derby contender to have run so often – he’s had four races already this season – but I think while it might not be orthodox there has to be a lot of advantages to that, especially in a big field as it can be a rough race and that might play into our hands.
“He demonstrated in the Dante even when others are not settling he’ll just do his own thing, settle wherever the jockey wants him, we know he has lots of speed to get a position and we’re very confident he’ll stay.
“He is owned by Sheikh Mohammed’s son and we are all part of the same team and William Buick is their retained jockey. With them having another three in there it is actually quite flattering that they have chosen Permian – as to my mind that makes him the number one and he’s won on the horse before.”
On the use of team tactics by the well-represented yards of Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden, he said: “Aidan’s got more runners in the Derby this year than I’ve had in my career and they do have tactical options, but we have a very experienced and versatile horse and I’d like to think William won’t be influenced by what anyone else does.”
Johnston also discussed the controversial issue of Diore Lia’s participation in the famous race. “It’s a very difficult one,” he said. “I’d hate to see restrictions on a race like the Derby. The most important thing about Group 1 races is that they are open to anybody, if you pay the money you can take your chance.
“Having said that, all credit to Jane Chapple-Hyam for being willing to give up the horse and say this horse should not be in the Derby. That’s her opinion and I very much respect that she’s made that stance.
“I’m not going to say the rules should be changed, but I’m surprised connections want to put an apprentice on a filly in the Derby. The very best of fillies struggle in the race and she’s rated in the 60s. Most people would say she shouldn’t be there.”
O’Brien to delay jockey decision until Wednesday evening
Ryan Moore is expected to partner Dee Stakes winner Cliffs Of Moher in the Investec Derby on Saturday, although Aidan O’Brien is unlikely to finalise riding arrangements for his six runners in the Epsom Classic until Wednesday evening.
O’Brien, who will be attempting to win the race for the sixth time, said on Tuesday: “The plan for the Derby remains the same. Cliffs Of Moher, Venice Beach, Capri, Douglas Macarthur, Wings Of Eagles and The Anvil are all intended runners.
“We also have Finn McCool left in but it’s unlikely he will run. We’ll be finalising riding plans for the race probably tomorrow evening.”
Moore will partner Rhododendron, who was cut to odds-on with most bookies on Tuesday, in the Investec Oaks on Friday when Seamie Heffernan is likely to be on Cheshire Oaks runner-up Alluringly.
“We’ll decide in the morning whether we’ll declare anything else for the Oaks but Rhododendron and Alluringly are both in good form,” O’Brien said.
Highland Reel and his brother Idaho, who will be making his reappearance, will line up for the Investec Coronation Cup on Friday.
“Both of them will run and it’s quite possible we will also run US Army Ranger,” said O’Brien.
O’Brien has yet to win the Prix du Jockey Club and is planning to run at least three colts in Sunday’s renewal at Chantilly.
He said: “We’re looking at running War Decree, Taj Mahal and Orderofthegarter and it’s possible we might run one other – Whitecliffsofdover or Homesman.”
Kirby predicts Thunder is capable of creating a big bang on the Downs
Adam Kirby believes a first Investec Derby ride could deliver a famous triumph on Saturday with the in-form jockey forecasting Godolphin’s Dubai Thunder will run “a big race” despite having just one run under his belt.
Kirby will be having his first Derby experience aboard the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained runaway Newbury winner, who bids to emulate 1973 Epsom champion Morston by converting a May debut success into Classic glory.
Since then Lammtarra, also sent to Epsom by Bin Suroor in 1995, is the only horse to have won the Derby on the back of just a single competitive appearance.
However, such was the manner of Dubai Thunder’s recent ten-length romp in the 1m2f maiden that his trainer this week said: “I know one day he’ll be something special. I like him very much for the Derby, despite his lack of racecourse experience.”
Lingfield Derby Trial winner Best Solution and Dante Stakes runner-up Benbatl are also being readied for a yard that has had only a single representative in one of the last six Derbys.
Although twice involved in the Oaks, Kirby will be part of the Derby razzmatazz for the first time, yet his big-race record has become increasingly impressive, not least thanks to his two Group 1 wins at last year’s Royal Ascot, on Profitable in the King’s Stand Stakes and My Dream Boat in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
“Dubai Thunder is a great ride to have,” said Kirby of the Dubawi colt, cut by BoyleSports on Tuesday to 12-1 from 16-1 for the £1.625 million showpiece. A number of firms continue to offer 16-1 in a market still narrowly headed by Cracksman at 4-1 over 9-2 shot Cliffs Of Moher, the likely mount of Ryan Moore from the Ballydoyle team.
“I don’t think the track will be a problem and I don’t think the trip will be a problem,” added Kirby.
‘I think he’s pretty decent’
“He has the speed for a mile, and having speed is going to be important, but he also stays well and I don’t think a mile and a half will trouble him. I think he’s pretty decent and he’s entitled to take his chance.
“He obviously has a lot of class and is going to need to show that class. He needs to raise his game a bit, but I’m sure he’ll have come on for the Newbury race.
“He’s very well-balanced, he’s clear-winded and he has a good gear change. I want to let the horse do the talking, but I think he’ll run a big race.”
Following a Group 2 double for Clive Cox at Haydock on Saturday aboard Harry Angel and Priceless, Kirby is riding a wave and leaving ever further behind the tag he once wore for being a sand specialist.
“I was called an all-weather jockey because I stay around on the all-weather and ride a lot of fancied horses on it,” he said.
“People then think you’re just an all-weather jockey. I might not get as many fancied rides on the turf as I do on the all-weather, but I’ve got a lot of great supporters.
‘Godolphin are great to me’
“Clive Cox is first in the club, but Godolphin are great to me as well and their support is very much appreciated.
“The Derby is a race every jockey wants to win. This is my first Derby ride but I’ve been around Epsom plenty of times before.
“I’ll take it all as it comes, but I am grateful to Saeed and all the connections for keeping me on the horse. I have a great relationship with them and ride a lot of nice horses for them. Long may that continue.”
As expected, Pat Cosgrave will continue his association with Best Solution, while Benbatl, partnered by Cosgrave at York, will on this occasion be steered by Oisin Murphy.
Although Bin Suroor is triple-handed, numerically he is adrift of Aidan O’Brien, who has seven possible starters, including Cliffs Of Moher, and Cracksman’s trainer John Gosden, whose five-strong team also includes £85,000 supplementary entry Khalidi.
Only five other trainers can be represented, namely Martyn Meade, Mark Johnston, Joseph O’Brien, Sylvester Kirk and John Jenkins.
Pricing up who will train the Derby winner, Betfair make O’Brien favourite at 13-8 with Gosden 9-4 and Bin Suroor 9-2. A win for one of the other five trainers can be backed at 7-2.
The going at Epsom has dried out a touch, from “good to soft” on Monday to “good, good to soft in places” on Tuesday afternoon. The latest GoingStick reading is 7.1.
Investec Derby, card, form and betting
fonte : RacingPost
#Epsom Derby: Supplementati #Permian e #Khalidi per £85,000. La curiosa storia di Diore Lia, chance a 5000/1
Ad Epsom correrà anche Diore Lia (Yeats), con chance a 5000/1. Si tratta di una femmina di 3 anni di proprietà di Ms Todd che ha corso solo 2 volte in carriera, senza mai piazzarsi, e battendo al massimo 4 cavalli in 2 uscite. Avrà in sella Gina Mangan che ha vinto una sola corsa in carriera, nel 2009 a Roscommon, neanche in Inghilterra e per questo ha avuto bisogno di una autorizzazione. L’allenava ufficialmente Jane Chapple Hyam che avrebbe manifestato dissenso per questa scelta, tanto che i proprietari alla fine hanno spostato la cavalla nella yard di John Jenkins.
