The Spanish translation of Del Mar means “of/from the the sea”, and the Pacific Ocean offers a stunning backdrop for the 38th edition of the Breeders’ Cup meeting.

Plenty has changed since racetrack founding partner Bing Crosby crooned about Where The Turf Meets The Surf, not least the traffic congestion in southern California.

It’s the prospect of becoming snarled up in an equine tailback, rather than the calibre of the opposition, that likely poses the greatest threat to Tarnawa in the defence of her Breeders’ Cup Turf crown on Saturday (11.40pm Irish time).

Last year at Keeneland, Dermot Weld’s filly faced just nine opponents, racing around a seven and a half furlong oval. This time around, she’ll encounter 13 rivals, racing over a circuit just seven furlongs in circumference. The home straight at Del Mar is the shortest at any of the major US tracks at 817 feet for the turf course, which equates to 1.23788 furlongs. We could round that down, but it’s probably better not to in a race where every inch of ground covered could count.

A jockey’s trackcraft counts for so much at Del Mar, with the course layout inevitably leading to an unacceptable level of hard luck stories, and Colin Keane’s lack of experience around here is a negative.

Keane is an elite rider, and getting a Group One win into Broome in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud back in July might constitute the Flat ride of the season.

Having seized an early lead, he slowed the pace right down, and then kicked just over two furlongs from home, getting the fractions just right.

There’s no question that he’s a good judge of pace, but navigating your way around an unfamiliar track that is so tight that you could quip is better suited to greyhounds than racehorses, doesn’t look an easy task. For all that Del Mar is picturesque, it’s clearly not the fairest test of a thoroughbred, which you’d imagine should be a prerequisite for an event that hubristically self-titles itself as the ‘World Thoroughbred Championships’, which it’s never really been, at least from a European perspective.

One thing Keane won’t be doing is riding for luck. That’s a luxury that’s afforded to jockeys on board outsiders, not short-priced favourites. However, it’s a ploy that decides many races at Del Mar.

When outsiders win any race, it can often be as a result of a pace bias, where rivals travel too quickly or too slowly. Judging those pace scenarios is a skill. At Del Mar, when outsiders score in large fields, it’s too often a case of trusting to good fortune and waiting for a gap to open. The problem with that tactic is that the gap may never come.

Tarnawa doesn’t need good luck to score here, she just needs to avoid misfortune. She saw off Magical in last year’s renewal and there’s no runner of that quality in the race this time around.

Given the fact that she’s ridden patiently, her wide draw isn’t a major disadvantage. She will have to cede ground, but better that than the loss of momentum and lack of opportunity that comes from being stuck behind a wall of horses as the field makes the turn for home.

Tarnawa boasts tactical speed and push button acceleration, and having been primed for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe after a late start to her season, she should remain at or near the peak of her powers.

That second place in the Arc on unsuitably soft ground last time out offers further evidence of her main weapon, which is her acceleration.

The penultimate furlong at Longchamp is where you expect to see the fastest sectional time posted, and she was fastest in that part of the race.

Teona and Yibir are next best in the market, but neither appeal at their current prices.

Teona may have won a Group One last time out, but her upset Prix Vermeille win was achieved in a modest time in a weak field, bar favourite Snowfall. Aidan O’Brien’s multiple Group One winner didn’t find much in the finish that day, a comment that held true for two follow-up efforts. She looked like a washed-up version of the star we saw earlier in the season, more Sleet than Snowfall, and that regression clearly began in her defeat to Teona.

Roger Varian’s representative does at least look as if she will act on the track, but the same can’t be said for Yibir.

He’s appeared an awkward conveyance and it came as no surprise to see him gelded earlier in the season.

The paradoxical inference that castration has made a man of him can’t be gleaned from his three wins from four starts since the op.

If his position in the market is mainly due to his authoritative win in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational, that form could well prove misleading.

He was a beneficiary of the leaders overdoing things in the early stages and it was notable how he had to be rousted along quite early at a galloping track like Belmont.

This course is unlikely to play to his main strength, which is stamina, and it would be no surprise to see him dead last in the early stages.

He should rattle home, but a total pace collapse could well be required for him to win in this spot, or even just to place. That’s the type of speculative play you could risk at a bigger price, but not at his current odds.

Even if such a scenario transpires, Gufo and Sisfahan arguably make more appeal as strong stayers, with greater tactical versatility, at better odds.

Looking back at last year’s race, it’s hard to believe that Tarnawa returned a starting price of 3-1 in the British and Irish industry market and a huge 4.7-1 on the US Tote.

Without a leading US-based candidate for the race or a fancied Aidan O’Brien-trained runner, that type of price was never likely to be repeated for a defending champion, particularly one who ran so well on her most recent outing.

Is Tarnawa value at 11-8? It’s a marginal call, but I’d rather be with her than against her.

If she is beaten, that’s more likely to occur in a race run at a pedestrian tempo, not a brisk one.

Yibir’s stablemate Walton Street is coming off a big run in the Canadian International and has clearly been aimed at this race for some time. He can race prominently without needing to lead and does make some each-way appeal in a race where bookmakers are offering up to five places.

The best of the domestic challenge at the prices may come from 40-1 outsider Tribhuvan. There are stamina doubts over the son of Toronado, but he ran a huge race when runner-up to Domestic Spending three starts back at Belmont. That came over 10 furlongs, but his rider set too strong a pace and it was remarkable that he was able to cling on for second behind a rival that many regard as the best middle distance turf horse in the US.

He followed that up by winning a slowly run affair at Monmouth over a furlong short of this trip, before slightly disappointing on his latest start, where he again suffered from being on the wrong end of a pace bias. If the early fractions are sedate, he can outrun his price in a major way.

font : By Barry McEneaney - RTÉ Sport journalist